Kondratiev's Revenge - 02-28-2024
Episode Summary:
The document "Kondratiev's Revenge" delves into the economic landscape marked by significant transitions, particularly highlighting the surge in Bitcoin's value as an indicator of broader economic shifts. The text begins by acknowledging the rise of Bitcoin to over $60,000, suggesting a crackup boom phase indicative of the end stages of fiat currency systems. This phase is not seen as the demise of capitalism but rather the collapse of the fiat currency, central banking, and global reserve systems. The document emphasizes capitalism as the only effective natural economic system, criticizing socialism and communism as ideologies that ultimately fail due to their inherent flaws.
The narrative then shifts to predict Bitcoin's continued rise within the context of this economic crackup boom, suggesting that as fiat currencies degrade, Bitcoin and possibly other commodities like silver and gold will see significant increases in value. However, not all commodities, such as real estate, are expected to participate in this upward trend. The document forecasts a further degradation in the real estate market, particularly commercial real estate in the U.S., which is described as having already collapsed with no immediate prospects for recovery.
As the discussion progresses, the document outlines a future where Bitcoin could potentially reach $120,000 by around April 19, driven by transaction volumes and the halving event. This prediction extends to a vision of Bitcoin surpassing a million dollars by 2025, marking the end of the petrodollar's dominance. The narrative encompasses the implications of such economic shifts, including the transformation of the European Union, described as an engineered attempt at unification since the 1960s, now facing the reality of its disintegration.
The text also touches upon the social and economic implications of this transition, including the potential for increased economic disparity, the challenges of integrating cryptocurrencies into mainstream financial systems, and the broader societal impacts of a shift away from fiat currencies. The document suggests that the economic upheaval will be accompanied by social chaos, engineered by the ideologies and actions of what it refers to as "mother wefers," leading to contention and a lack of easy resolutions.
Key takeaways from "Kondratiev's Revenge" include the prediction of Bitcoin's ascent as a reflection of the fiat currency system's failure, the critique of socialism and communism in favor of capitalism, and the anticipation of significant economic shifts impacting commodities, real estate, and the global financial system. The document posits a future where digital currencies play a central role in the new economic order, challenging traditional financial institutions and systems.
In conclusion, "Kondratiev's Revenge" presents a complex portrait of an impending economic transformation driven by the rise of cryptocurrencies, the failure of fiat currencies, and the inadequacies of existing economic ideologies. It forecasts a tumultuous yet potentially lucrative future for those invested in digital currencies, while also highlighting the broader economic, social, and political challenges that such a transition entails.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin's value is surging, indicating the start of a crackup boom and the end of fiat currency dominance.
- Socialism and communism are criticized as inherently flawed ideologies against the backdrop of capitalism's effectiveness.
- Bitcoin is predicted to reach $120,000 around April 19, and potentially exceed a million dollars by 2025.
- The commercial real estate market in the U.S. has collapsed, not expected to recover soon.
- The degradation of fiat currencies and the global economic implications, particularly for the petrodollar system, are highlighted.
Predictions:
- Bitcoin will potentially double in value by April 19, reaching $120,000.
- Bitcoin's price might hit over a million dollars each by 2025, signifying the end of the petrodollar.
- Commercial real estate will not recover under the current financial system, leading to further economic degradation.
Key Players:
- Bitcoin
- Ethereum
- Litecoin
- Monero
- Federal Reserve
- European Central Bank
- European Union
Kondratiev's Revenge - 02-28-2024
Hello humans. Hello humans. February 28, a little after eight in the morning, I'm running a little tiny bit late. Gotta get my ass into town and have a, got a couple of appointments I gotta get get to one will take about an hour, and then I can do some semi regular shopping and then go meet with these other guys and discuss a few things and then head back outbound anyway, so all kinds of things to talk about here, let me get my stuff settled.
So bitcoin is up to over 60,000 this morning.
The projections on that are pretty clear at this point. As I had said, we're into the period of the crackup boom. This is the contratif understanding of how fiat currency systems end. It's not capitalism dying, it's the fiat currency, central bank, global reserve thing that's dying. Right?
Capitalism is the only effective natural economic system. Socialism, communism, all of these kind of things are artifacts, are ideologies that are laid over the economics, and they don't really work, and they always crap out, and they always crap out violently because of the nature of the hatred that is inbuilt into socialism and communism. These are hateful ideologies that have flaws built into their very nature by the fact that they were invented as whole structures by the Elohim worship cult. Anyway, so bitcoin's way up last month or so, and it will continue to rise as we get further into the crack up boom. We can expect some pretty spectacular dollar numbers relative to bitcoin.
And then maybe ultimately we're going to break open the suppression and control on silver and gold, and we'll see them follow the same kind of path as bitcoin within the crack up boom. So we'll see commodities, okay? It's not going to be all commodities because some things like real estate, are not necessarily going to participate. It's an interesting time. So I'm actually expecting, as bitcoin prices rise, continue to rise, as gold and silver keep banging against that wall of suppression, I'm expecting further degradation in the real estate market, to the point that we'll actually have mainstream media having to comment on the collapse of real estate.
It's already started with the commercial real estate. And so the commercial real estate market in the US basically has collapsed, and it is not going to recover anytime soon, and it's very likely not ever going to recover under a Federal Reserve node petrodollar. So that's what's dying, okay? The petrodollar that backs all the other fiat currencies is dying. The European Union thinks that they can keep their, the European Central bank thinks they can keep their aggregate euro currency going, and it's already dying and they're just scrambling like mad to try and keep it together against the continuing breakup of their European Union, which was not an organic thing.
It was engineered since the 1960s. I saw the beginning of that. I saw the beginning of the mother Weffers push towards a common united Europe that they could wield like the United States as a single entity. I saw that in the 60s with the introduction of the common market language and how they started changing and doing their social engineering then, because that was anti organic kind of mood, I guess you'd say. So the popular mood after World War II was everybody go home and lick their wounds, tighten up, clean up all of this kind of stuff.
Instead, the globalists push and push and push to get this, quote, democratization of Europe, which means the destruction of the republics and smoosh them all together into the EU. And we're here now. So bitcoin's going to be going up. All the cryptos will go up to a certain extent. Many cryptos will die in the near future.
All right, so we're talking a few months and we'll start seeing some level of crypto death. Just even as we're seeing new all time highs for bitcoin and all different kinds of currencies, we're very close to that in the dollar. Once we get a new all time high, over 63,000 in bitcoin in the dollar, then it will really rush up. The projections are by a lot of people that are doing charting this kind of shit. The projections are that bitcoin is going to scale up fairly rapidly as we approach the having, which is estimated to be April 19.
Now, based on how much, many transactions, really how many transactions are in the blockchain? And so the projection is April 19 as we go through there. The projections are that the bitcoin price will exceed $120,000 us. So it would double from today's value over these next few months, assuming we follow the more or less regular pattern that we encountered, that we all have so far encountered in having years. So if we have that, we'll go up over 120,000, maybe that takes into fall or something, and then there will be a pullback.
It might be a 20,000 or $30,000 pullback. And so bitcoin might drop back down into the upper 90s. Right. Okay, so what are these guys doing here? Hang on, I've got some squeeze driving to do between buses and weird ass contractor guys.
Okay, so bitcoin goes up to the 120,000, drops down into the upper 90s, makes a floor into the upper ninety s, and then pushes through that floor and beyond the rest of this year, as the fiat currencies continue their degradation and the social chaos that was engineered and built into the cake now by the actions of the mother wefers. So there will be contention with all of the invaders. They're here. We've got to deal with them. There won't be an easy resolution.
They're not going to become nice and peaceful USA or european citizens. Their intent is to invade and take over and cause problems. So this will occur, that's going to further cause degradations within the economic system because you can't have activity as normal when you're in the process of being invaded and fighting off an invading force.
This is going to be the rest of this year. We'll be going through this. The economic aspect of it, the actual production of goods and services and all of that kind of stuff is going to take a hit as well. This will also affect the underpinnings of the ability to satisfy debt in the fiat currencies, because that's all they are. They're just a mechanism for dealing with debt.
They're not really money per se. They're a debt that you take on when you use their currencies. So this will continue to degrade and will even accelerate as we go through the year. So it might be very feasible that we have a solid floor in bitcoin, around $100,000 by the time we get to Christmas. Thus we'll meet the conditions for the $100,000 bitcoin parties during a Christmas season that were in the altar reports, and it would make sense.
So we'll go up to 120, and then we'll crash back down. It won't be a crash, it'll be a reduction, a consolidation, whatever you want to call it. Go back down to in the upper ninety s and then fight our way over 100,000 by Christmas as a solid floor. Okay? And so this is the action within fiat currency worlds relative to the fiat currency is the sudden rise, the boom, then the retraction, the pullback, and then consolidation and flooring, and then another rise.
Now the expectation is just doing projections off of charts and stuff. So I don't have any data, but these chartists, I'm just looking at their stuff, and the projection is that in 2025 we'll see bitcoin over a million dollars each. And this will be truly the end of the petrodollar as we get into those kind of numbers. It just won't be worth even messing with as a debt settling instrument. So bitcoin will be, BTC will be hugely impacted over these next two years, and it will carry along with it a number of related currencies.
And this will include all of the BTC clones, but also it'll bring in Ethereum and litecoin Monero. Monero is going to have a really big future here, especially in these next couple of years, as the status go fucking batshit and try and control everything. And so Monero will be used as a relatively non traceable settlement vehicle. It'll have a lot of demand. Beyond that, there are going to be other alt cryptos that survive for various different reasons, but at this point, it's sort of a crapshoot betting on any individual technology, unless you've really gone into those technologies and really examine them and understand where the utility is and why they will survive this period of time.
The period of time we're coming into is going to force everybody back to solid money, to realistic valuations on stuff. As the petrodollar dies and then all of the other fiat currencies that are attached to it, they're all dying now, right? So we're seeing that now, bitcoin is making all time highs in number of different languages, currencies, including in Japanese, right? So japanese currency is very stable, usually. And for it to be making these kind of big new all time highs in bitcoin, for bitcoin in yen, is really a very telling issue.
So we're just here now. And so there's going to be, this is the wealth transfer period where those people that were hodlers and got into the idea of digital scarcity and settlement vehicles versus hard currency and so on, are going to benefit for that attention to the currency and all things economic, and they're going to benefit for their acumen and for their courage in acting against the general trend and herd. Right? So bitcoin people, very likely the Hodlers, none of those people took the shot because it's the same kind of. Maybe some of the money manager kind of guys did, but mostly the individual bitcoiners.
I bet you they didn't take any of the clot shots, because it's the same kind of process that allows you to be courageous and make a move early and ahead and against the existing trends that will propel you into this intergenerational wealth stuff. Right? Same thing with silver, buying silver way the hell back when, when it was $8 an ounce for junk silver means you were that precious, that much ahead. And so those are the people that are being rewarded now by the activity within, the degradation of the fiat currency and the wealth transfer aspect of it. Remember, wealth does not go away.
It doesn't disappear unless you bury it in the ground and die, and thus, no one knows it's there. So that's really the only way that this kind of stuff goes away. You'll always lose a little bit here and there, but in general, wealth sticks around. It just transfers from one form to another as you go through into the future here.
And we're in one of those transitional periods now. This is going to be relatively exciting for people. You'll have all kinds of people getting whipped up all time highs in dollars for bitcoin are always something that everybody gets excited about. Also, this time, it's going to be coincident with all kinds of crapola going on in the general dynamism of the populace. So we're just about to get into March.
We'll probably cross a couple of significant bitcoin thresholds here in March. Maybe we'll go up another 20 or so percent fairly rapidly in bitcoin and get up over the 75,000 mark. It's not resistance in that sense, in the chartist sense, but it is a key peg at 75,000 for a bitcoin because that was in data sets way back when, as a minor temporal marker, there's another very large temporal marker, which is 88,000. Right. And so bitcoin had this thing back in the day, way back when, when the data set said that it would rise up to $880, and then it would fall back, and then it would do this three times, and then it was never, ever going to go back down below 880.
We have that same kind of language for 88,000. Okay, so it'll go through 88,000, and then it will set a floor in the range of 88,000. Maybe it'll come down to 84,000 and then go back up to 88 and then come back down and then go back up. But it'll do the 88 business three times. Right.
So it'll go through 88,003 times, and then it's done with 88,000 series of ferns, and we won't be repeating that. So then it'll go on up to its 120,000. So maybe that'll be. Maybe we'll reach those kind of milestones post having. So sometime after the 19 April, maybe we'll get into those kind of numbers.
Bear in mind, it's not bitcoin that's becoming more valuable. Well, it is in a sense, because value is an emotional attachment to an idea like bitcoin or gold or silver or whatever. It's an emotional thing.
But after the having is when I suspect that we'll start going through some of these very key temporal markers relative to Fern, to bitcoin prices, and that those will also be commensurate with all of the activity that's ongoing through this period of time. So in March, we're going to have lots and lots and lots of violent activity, new stuff happening. This will include reactions within the currency and economic situation relative to.
So basically what's going to happen is that there will actually be reactions within the social order about the pricing and so forth in ferns of various different kinds of commodities. And these things will have shock.
They'll initiate shocks within the social order. So it's going to be a huge shock when silver breaks out of its value range that it's being constrained in. This will happen because of some breakdowns that will occur within the, quote exchange system, which is really a control mechanism. And so the bitcoin and its fern price, also, it's priced in kroner or whatever the hell, right? All these other currencies, it'll be making new highs in all these global currencies as we get to the point where that triggers things within the control mechanism and starts affecting the price of silver and to a lesser extent of gold.
So it might well be that by the time we get into 2025, we've got gold at maybe it's doubled in price, maybe it's in the $5,000 an ounce range. And at that point, silver should have busted out to where it's broken through 50 $8100 an ounce. So we have language now in the minimalist little bit of scraping I can do. So let me emphasize that I do not have the hundreds of millions of reads that I used to in my processing because of the situation, the costs and so on that are involved in that at this day and age, as well as the bandwidth, I just don't have that here.
I had one third of a t one line, so vast quantities of bandwidth at my old office before we moved. Now out here on the coast, I just have to deal with the best bandwidth you can get on a residential line. I had had a special line run into me from the phone company at a huge cost back in Olympia at our other address, I think it was done in when we do, maybe that was 2002. I did that. It was fantastically huge cost.
It cost like $1,600 to run that line. We had to drive it under the road and tunnel up 100 plus feet to get it into the house. But it was huge bandwidth. I mean, it's just incredible anyway, though, so I don't have that now. So all of my projections are based on a minimalist data set.
So the probability of errors is very high. And the probability that the errors are going to be wildly off is very high as well. So if I'm going to put an error on this, it should be ending up as pretty spectacular. Error 830, I can probably make it here. I have a bunch of stops, so I got to do all these little chores as well as these couple of meetings.
I'm going to try and squeeze in a little chore before I get into that first meeting, shorten some of the duration. We've got our sick dog and my wife is just not really health wise, just up to dealing with all kinds of stuff. So I want to try and get back as soon as I can anyway, though.
So I expect that we'll have kinetic activity in March. We'll have frenetic freak out kind of economic activity in April. We're going to have all kinds of information that comes out as a result of this. Simply because as the dollar degrades, there's less ability to pay people to keep their mouth shut is fundamentally what it amounts to. Right.
The whole system is breaking down because the dollar is breaking down, because the Federal Reserve note is breaking down to the point where it has no purchasing value and people have no confidence in it. So they're going to act differently, and they already are. We're seeing the effects of that all over.
So I personally think this is a very exciting time. I have some bitcoin, I have a few of those guys, so I'm interested in following along with it. However, my real problem is I'm feeling so soviet, right? I feel like I'm back in the USSR in my day in the. There was a joke that in the Soviet Union, you worked your ass off and you made good money, but there was nothing to.
So that was it. If you saw a line on a street corner near any kind of a store, you went and got in that line because it meant there was something in that store to buy and everybody had money because there was nothing to buy with the money. So it's just a weird situation. So for me, it's kind of like that. So I was lamenting the other day about how soviet I feel because I can't find a single story house, right?
I mean, I can find them that are six and 7 hours away, but that's just not feasible. We're just not going to be able to do that. It has to meet certain criteria anyway relative to, like wheelchair access and that sort of thing. And the number of bedrooms. If it's a single story house, no problem.
But in any event, so I can't find one. So I'm feeling very soviet, right? Like if I saw a big line in front of a real estate agency, I'd go and get there. But any event though. So here's the thing about real estate, because I got to wrap this up fairly quick.
Commercial real estate has collapsed. The amount of bad debt associated with commercial real estate, right, now that they know the debt is bad, that is that people are behind on payments on commercial real estate. They're not making their mortgage on time or barely making it on time, whereas before they would pay it early, that kind of thing. All of these indicators are showing that commercial real estate has just totally crapped out. Now, the extent of the commercial real estate that has already crapped out means that the entire banking system in the United States, as well as the banking system, most of the banking system in Europe cannot come up with reserves to cover the losses.
And this is not the complete collapse yet of the commercial real estate market, meaning that we're looking at a breakdown of commercial real estate at a level that has not ever been seen before in our modern society. And if we look at, and there is no analog for it in previous times, it's at that level. So just absolutely staggering, the complete, the complete involvement of this. So if we were to take basically all commercial real estate, then the amount of loss reserves the banks would have to have is about 18 times what they've got set aside, 18 times. So they've only got 118 of the loss reserves necessary to cover the commercial real estate market as it exists now in its totality.
But in fact, the whole system is reeling with it. Only one 18th broken down. Right.
Like I was saying, I know guys that like myself, for whatever reason, they were hunting for older guys that are hunting for houses and trying to move and this sort of thing, mostly people with cryptos. So they feel they've got the financial freedom to do this at this time, and they're looking at commercial real estate because there's not much in the way of residential real estate being sold or offered even, because even if you wanted to sell your house, there's no house for you to buy. And the minute you sell your house and convert that house into dollars, the dollars start depreciating, like, right the fuck away. And so you're running up against a decreasing amount of value that you've converted your house out of, and then you're trying to get that money converted back into a new house, and they're just not available or whatever. Also, a lot of them still have high prices, expecting to be able to recover some of the amount of debt in there.
So a lot of the houses have very high prices on them because the level of debt that has to be satisfied in the sale. So I know some houses now where they, I don't know if people are going to try and flip them or what the deal is. That whole, quote, industry is really tanked. But I know a couple of houses where the owners are basically wrestling to see if they're going to accept offers that are below assessed value. So this is that point of time where we reconvert wealth and taxes and so on.
So all these counties are freaking out because houses aren't selling. They get some money in the process of the house sale, but also it sets a new base for them relative to land taxes. And those are dropping because the sales price is less than the county's already assessed value. They can't have that legally. They have to adjust it downward to the actual sales price.
And this is the same mechanism that destroyed the land tax base for the counties, especially out in the know anything west of the Ohio river valley, but also, but throughout the entire country was seriously affected in the Great Depression. And the mechanism was that the land prices were, sales were at such a low level and that affected the tax base.
Counties don't like it. There's nothing they can do about it. But this is the state of affairs at the moment. So real estate is not necessarily going to be a good investment, especially for short term kind of stuff. So I just want a new house.
I'm not looking at an investment. I just want to get away from all of the noise and the crap of adding this and rebuilding the house I'm in. I really have to. The contractor really fucked me over there and the things he did. And I've got some serious issues with that house that I'm wrestling with.
So I just want to get another house to go and live in while all this is going on. I'm not after any kind of long term gain and stuff. If I were I would still be looking into commercial real estate, because this stuff is so hugely undervalued. And you're finding if you look, you can find places where the value of the property to you is such that if you make an offer that can be used as leverage with the banks to get people out from under the debt, they will do so. So I know of one place where an old restaurant was sold for a guy, to a guy, and he's converting it into a house.
And when he bought that, it had been on the market for, jeez, maybe twelve years or something like that, and he picked it up and offered some small fraction, let's just say that he offered like one fifth or something of the notional value at the time that it was listed.
So that was not enough to satisfy the debt on this property that just sat there. But the bank, it had been in arrears for a number of years. The guy making some level of payments, just enough to keep it going. And the guy went with the offer back to the bank and said, what can we do? And they said, okay, we'll go with you on this amount.
We'll forgive this amount of the debt if you accept this offer and you pay off this other amount of the debt. And so they worked it out. And so basically the bank took a big hit on it. And this guy took a big hit on it. And my friend bought this place, which he's now putting money into, in order to turn it into a house from a restaurant.
And in some places, that's what we're going to have to do.
Trying to see where I've got. Okay, there we are.
Anyway, so that's the state of affairs here. I'm still sort of looking for a house. I'm in the process of getting the next phase of my addition going here. So we're going to have the engineering and the plans. I'll submit those.
I don't really give a rat's ass about the county's opinion of stuff, but I'm going to do it just to be legal. If they slow me down, then we'll go into an illegal state where I'll just say, yeah, piss on it, I don't give a shit. We're doing it. But in any event. So the next thing is to get the heat pump moved.
Well, the next thing is to get some more lumber or logs out of the place and a couple of large stumps removed, and then to get the heat pump moved and the foundation started. Now, the good news for me at a personal level is that there's a lot of crews available, starting to become available because work is drying up. Not that many people are out here building houses and stuff. So those new housing starts are way down all over, which means that there's more crews for remodels and things. Not a good thing economically, but at least I'll be able to keep a couple of people employed with their crews here as we go forward for at least a brief bit of time.
So they'll get some money this year. That's just the situation that we've got. Anyway, like I say, bitcoin is probably going to retreat after it gets up to about 118 to 120,000 something in there. And then that retracement will be the floor. So it goes from 120 down to upper 90s, is my thinking.
And then after that, that's the floor for it. And we go back up into the over 100,000 by Christmas of this year. And that's our floor for 2025. And then we rush on in to the millions as the fiat currency totally breaks down. Okay, so a little early, but I'll get it in.
Let's see if I can get in early on this. All right, guys, so I'll do a other one of these on the way out. There's so much to talk about. Yes. So, anyway, have fun.
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