4th Turning
Episode Summary:
The book "The Fourth Turning" introduces the concept of saeculum, which are cycles of roughly 80 years, approximating a human lifespan. These cycles consist of four "turnings" that correlate to generational shifts and societal changes. Each turning represents a different season of society: a high, an awakening, an unraveling, and a crisis.
America's current cycle began post-World War II with a period of prosperity and equality, epitomized by cultural icons like Elvis and innovative developments like the first computers.
This high ended with the assassination of JFK, leading into an awakening marked by social upheaval and rights movements.
The unraveling followed, characterized by political and social decay, culminating in economic crises.
We are now in a crisis phase, a period of upheaval and transformation.
The book suggests each generation plays a role in these cycles, with Baby Boomers seen as prophets, Gen X as nomads, Millennials as heroes, and Gen Z expected to be artists. This ongoing cycle influences individuals' roles in society and underscores the repetitive yet transformative nature of history.
Key Takeaways:
- Historical Cycles: The concept of saecula, or 80-year history cycles, frames history in terms of generational changes and societal transformations.
- Four Turnings: Each cycle consists of four phases—high, awakening, unraveling, and crisis—each resembling seasons and lasting approximately 20 years.
- Generational Roles: Specific roles are attributed to different generations:
- Baby Boomers are viewed as prophets.
- Generation X is characterized as nomads.
- Millennials are expected to emerge as heroes.
- Generation Z is anticipated to be the artist generation.
- Current Phase: The narrative posits that we are currently in a crisis phase, a time of upheaval and significant change.
- Impact of Generations: Each generation has a critical role during the turnings, influencing the course and outcome of these historical cycles.
- Societal Transformation: The crisis phase is seen as a catalyst for major societal shifts, where new ideas and systems can emerge.
- Historical Patterns: Recognizing these patterns can help individuals understand the broader societal dynamics and their potential roles within them.
- Predictive Insight: The book suggests that understanding these cycles provides predictive insight into what kinds of societal changes and challenges might be expected.
- Generational Influence: The theory emphasizes the importance of generational characteristics and their collective influence on shaping the future.
- Cyclic Nature of History: Emphasizes the repetitive nature of history, suggesting that by understanding past cycles, one can anticipate future developments.
Predictions:
- The current crisis phase will lead to significant societal transformations, potentially altering how society functions at fundamental levels.
- Generational roles will shape the outcomes of this transformation, with each generation bringing its unique contributions and challenges to the fore.
- Upcoming generational shifts are expected to rebalance power and influence, potentially tilting towards younger generations as they come of age during and after the crisis.
- Historical events will continue to unfold in predictable cycles, allowing those who understand these patterns to better prepare for and respond to future crises.
- The crisis will act as a "forest fire," clearing old growth to make way for new developments in society, economy, and politics.
Key Players:
- John F. Kennedy
- Martin Luther King
- Bill Gates
- Steve Jobs
- Elon Musk
- Malala Yousafzai
- Bill Withers
- Toni Morrison
- Bob Dylan
- Hank Williams
- Elvis Presley
- Little Richard
- McIntosh (First McIntosh computer)
- Ronald Reagan
4th Turning
For a decade, this spirited man had been reading books, trying to figure out what the hell was going on. His brother, a spirited man himself, told him to read this book, the fourth turning. This book turned out to be the spirited man's favorite kind of book. A mind blower, a book about how and when history repeats itself.
And this is what the book said. History repeats itself in 80 year blocks called saeculum, but we'll just call them history blocks. Not exactly 80 years. This is history, not math, but roughly the span of a human lifetime. Maybe 80 to 90 years.
Within these 80 year history blocks, we have four turnings of around 20 years each. We usually call them generations. This book calls them turnings. Turnings are sort of like seasons, like spring, summer, fall, winter. Throughout our history, we've had these 80 year blocks.
And the 80 year blocks have been remarkably similar to each other. We're in one now.
The first turning, the first season is a high, an upbeat era. The second turning is an awakening, a passionate era. The third turning is an unraveling, a downcast era. And the fourth turning, well, sorry, but fourth turnings suck. The fourth turning is a crisis, an era of upheaval.
We're in a fourth turning right now.
So let's take a look at our seculum, our history block. The history block that we're in the crisis of right now. Our high began after our world War two victory. By our, we mean America's. These are America's history blocks and turnings.
During a high, the getting is good. We had the most even distribution of wealth during our high. You could work at a gas station and afford to buy a house. This high is the period that the MAGA hats refer to. We got Hank Williams and Elvis and Little Richard.
In the birth of rock and roll, we launched monkeys and men into space. This is when the Mustangs and corvettes first came out. Our high ended with the assassination of John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963. The high is not a high for everyone, of course, America still had a segregated south.
Homosexuality was illegal and considered a mental disorder. The high is a period of conformity. The age of nonconformity and of social justice begins during the awakening, our passionate era. During the awakening, we had Martin Luther King and the civil rights movement, acid Vietnam protests and Vietnam itself. The women's liberation movement, stonewall and the gay rights movement.
Great movies, great music. This is when the first McIntosh computer came out. The awakening is a time of increasing individualism. This second turning, this awakening ended with the reelection of Ronald Reagan in 1984. Things get messy during the third turning.
During the unraveling, we got the fall of soviet communism and the beginning of the russian gangster state. The greatest musicians of the time sang about violence and decay in their deteriorating cities. The LA riots, OJ, the bombing of Bosnia, and the Columbine high school shootings. On the same day, September 11, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Our unraveling ended with the financial crisis of 2008.
A fascinating fact about this book is that it was written during the last third turning, published in 1997. But the book predicts now what's happening now in this fourth turning. And what's happening now is right on schedule.
80 years ago. In the last fourth turning, America had her great depression. Then World War 280. Years before that, the civil war. 80 years before that, the revolutionary war.
Now it's our turn to save the country.
So where do you fit into all this? What's your role? It depends when you were born. Each generation, each cohort, tends to embody a specific archetype, an archetype that will move the society towards the next high. Each generation's archetype is the characteristic that will define the generation in its prime in midlife.
The boomer archetype is the prophet. Bill Gates and Steve Jobs are boomers and prophets. Both predicted that one day everyone, not just big corporations and governments, would own a computer. Gates even predicted a crisis like COVID-19 five years beforehand. The writers of this book are boomers and prophets.
Gen X is the nomad generation, the quintessential Gen xer. Elon Musk builds things that move us from one place to another. Rockets, electric cars, hyperloops, nomadic devices.
But the millennials raised during the unraveling will emerge as the hero generation during this crisis. These are the Parkland high students, the frontline hospital workers, and Malala Yuschafzai. The book says millennials will be the world War two heroes of our history block.
We don't know what Gen Z will do, but they will be an artist generation. From them will emerge the next bill Withers, Toni Morrison, or Bob Dylan, all born during the last crisis, all from an artist generation. The history block before ours ended with World War two and began with the civil war 80 years prior. The history block before that ended with the civil war and began with the end of the revolutionary war 80 years prior. Every 80 years or so, something big comes along and changes everything.
And now we're at the end of our history block, right in the middle of our crisis. We are in the process of changing our world again. The authors of the fourth turning tell us that these crises are like forest fires, unpleasant but necessary. They clear the woods for new growth as we work towards our next high. This crisis will tilt the playing field away from the old and towards the young, they tell us.
But the victory is not guaranteed. We will each of us need to rise to the occasion during this crisis. We will need to develop and fortify our virtues as we pursue a greener pasture.
Our western society was built to foster the potential of each individual within it. The aggregate effort of individuals keeps it going.
The spirited man wonders, what is his role? What verse must he contribute to help extinguish the crisis?
This spirited man is told that his cohort, Gen X, is the repair generation, the one stuck with fixing the messes and cleaning up the debris left by others. Cleaning, fixing, repair.
This particular spirited man from the last pre digital generation, the last of the analogs, just happens to have a particular knack for repair and for fixing.
Perhaps his nomad generation is tasked with ferrying his society from one saeculum, from one history block to another. But where does he start? Well, the zipline at the community center playground has been broken for over a year, and this particular spirited man happens to have the tools to fix it.
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